OUSD Kindergarten Wait-list- chances for Peralta, Chabot Elementary?

We are currently waitlisted #81 at Chabot, #13 at Peralta. (Choice #1 & #2 respectively) Does anyone have experience from past years as to what chance we have of getting into these schools? We aren't zoned for either. *Anxious parent*

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I have no advice but am also curious on other experiences last year, from what I understand this is only the second year for the current waitlist process.  Not really knowing how to rank these schools that all seemed great, our waitlist numbers are all over the place and seem to not correspond with how we ranked them.  For example, #3 is Montclair at 272 and Peralta is #4 but we're waitlisted at 21.

I contacted the student center to ask this question and was given estimates of 10-15 students being expected to move off of the waitlist. You have a chance at Peralta. 

The OUSD lottery isn't weighted to give you a better chance at your higher-ranked schools, which is why numbers are all over the place. Instead, you essentially get one "entry" into an independent lottery for every school you list (plus your neighborhood school, if you didn't list it). Your chances are based on how many other people also listed a given school, rather than how you or they ranked it. The rankings are only used to determine which school to offer you and which to drop--if you got lucky and had high enough numbers to get spots at both your #3 and #5 schools, for instance, you would get offered your #3 and #4-6 would drop off your list, while you'd stay on the waitlist for #1 and #2. It is true that this is only the second year for the current enrollment process, so the waitlist numbers aren't comparable to the waitlists under the old appeals system (where you could only be on the waitlist for one school). Hopefully in future years OUSD will publish some of the data on how far down they've gone on the lists at various schools--anecdotally it seems that it can be quite far at all but the most in-demand schools, so don't give up!

If it's any consolation, we accepted our Peralta kindergarten spot (which is our neighborhood school) but will most likely move from the area this summer, thus relinquishing our spot at Peralta. 

Does anyone also know if it helps to continue to "pester" the admissions office?  Someone advised me to call often to let them know I'm still interested in the schools on our waitlist.  But this seems bothersome.  I'd rather just let the waitlist work itself out through the summer!

It used to be the case that pestering and being the squeaky wheel helped a lot, but part of the move to the online waitlist system was intended to make the process more transparent and equitable and less susceptible to the behind-the-scenes pushing. It does still help if there are actual problems that need to be fixed (e.g., you should have neighbor priority but weren't granted it so they need to fix it on the back end), but otherwise--you just have to be patient. Many ahead of you on the list also really want to attend.